Last week’s Morgan poll had Labor ahead 54-46, Essential continues at 53-47. There was no Newspoll this week but the Abbott Government’s political fortunes remain decisively buried. Interest turns to how the leaders are tracking. Here the news is that “Don’t know” and “Anyone else” are performing very well indeed. Continue reading Poll stuff 5/8
Tag Archives: Shorten_Bill
Turning back boats – only by agreement
Turning back asylum seeker boats can only be done legally and ethically, in my view, with the agreement of transitional countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Unfortunately the form of the decision made at the ALP conference makes clear that the ALP would seek to act without such agreement. Continue reading Turning back boats – only by agreement
Saturday salon 25/7
1. Leaders summit
On Wednesday, prior to COAG on Thursday, our political leaders held a summit or retreat to dicuss taxation and the future of the federation. By all accounts they enjoyed the talkfest – Jay Weatherall said it was “very positive” and that “in my sense and my operation in COAG over the last five years, this is probably the most constructive I have ever seen”.
Despite that there is no evidence they actually decided anything except lowering the threshold at which the GST applies to offshore online purchases. Continue reading Saturday salon 25/7
Abbott sets up for a double-D poll
The Abbott government plans to give itself the option of calling a double-dissolution election based on trade union corruption when Parliament resumes in mid-August, according to Phillip Coorey and Patrick Durkin in the Fin Review. Abbott will try to reap the reward for his $80 million investment in the royal commission. Continue reading Abbott sets up for a double-D poll
Saturday salon 11/7
1. Can Bill Shorten afford to ignore Rupert Murdoch?
Rodney Tiffen thinks he can.
- Last year, the total circulation of all Australian daily newspapers was a little over 2.1 million, fully one million lower than it was at the turn of the century.
Shorten loses some bark at the Royal Commission
The consensus seems to be that Bill Shorten has “lost some bark” during his appearance at the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption, but the damage is not serious. Continue reading Shorten loses some bark at the Royal Commission
Saturday salon 20/6: late edition
1. Paying people smugglers
The story of the week was perhaps The Abbott Government’s paying people smugglers to turn back a boatload of asylum seekers to Indonesia.
Indonesia’s foreign ministry says it believes the payments were made. It seems pretty obvious that they were. Continue reading Saturday salon 20/6: late edition
Poll stuff: Abbott edges ahead of Shorten
Newspoll now has Abbott ahead of Shorten 41-37 as better PM. Michelle Grattan says that back in February Shorten had an 18 point lead. Continue reading Poll stuff: Abbott edges ahead of Shorten
What people want from politics: Shorten’s budget reply
Listening to Bill Shorten’s budget reply speech, I was reminded on my son Mark’s statement of what people want from politics in his book Queensland: Everything you ever wanted to know, but were afraid to ask. Continue reading What people want from politics: Shorten’s budget reply
An untrustworthy, unimaginative, incompetent dunderhead
That’s how voters see their prime minister Tony Abbott, says Laura Tingle of the most recent Nielsen Poll.
More of that later, but the poll sees the ruling LNP stabilise in landslide loss territory at 54-46:
The only demographics where the LNP has a clear lead in the primary vote are the 55+ group and WA. But in WA the TPP lead is only 52-48, well within the margin of error. Queensland has turned sour for the LNP at 45-55.
Abbott’s approval rating has improved from -25 to -18. Abbott’s overall personal rating may improve further due to his handling of the response to the Ukraine air tragedy but his real problem seems to lie in the voters’ view of his personal attributes. Abbott continually hammered the Gillard government over competency and trust. He fails on both counts.
According to Nielsen, voters now rate his competence as slightly lower than Gillard’s.
They do not rate him as being as strong a leader, believe him to be even less trustworthy, and have an even weaker grasp on economics.
At least the former prime minister had a majority of voters believing she had a firm grasp on foreign and social policy – only 43 per cent of voters rate Abbott on foreign policy and 34 per cent on social policy.
Abbott has strengths (above 50%) in his clear vision for Australia’s future and in his ability to make things happen. However, his weakness on social policy is severe, contrasting with Shorten’s strength. In context Abbott’s strengths may be problematic.
Shorten emerges as a more competent and trustworthy figure, but he is yet to be seen as a strong leader with a vision for the country and an ability to make things happen. Perhaps a problem of opposition.
Shorten still heads Abbott as preferred PM but has slipped slightly from 47-40 to 46-41.
On economic policy they are even, and not very good on 45%.
Prior to the budget Joe Hockey had a clear lead over Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer at 51-34. Now they are virtually even at 43-42.
Reading opinion polls is a bit like reading tea leaves, but the Abbott government’s problems appear fundamental.