Politics & Government, Social Science and Society

Poll stuff

30 Comments

While we wait for politics to crank up other matters are more interesting.

On politics, Essential Report has the LNP lead narrowing to 51-49, while Roy Morgan also has a narrowing but by 1.5 points to 56-44. They can’t both be right, but they can certainly both be wrong!

I’m sure the pollies are waiting for Newspoll.

Better prime minister and approval ratings continue to be shocking for Bill Shorten.

Essential Report takes a look at Sexism and Discrimination against Women. It’s all bad, really, around 60% in politics, advertising, workplaces, sport and the media. It’s less bad in schools at 44%.

    There has been little change in these figures since this question was asked in June 2013.

Then they look at Respect for men and women in professions:

    A majority think that men are more respected than women in the professions of building and construction (74%), the military (70%), politics (63%), sport (61%), finance/banking (53%) and the law (53%).

    A majority think both are respected equally in TV presenting (52%) and teaching (50%).
    58% think women are more respected in nursing.

    Apart from nursing, teaching and sport, women are considerably more likely to think men are more respected in each profession.

On Islamaphobia, according to The Oz (paywalled):

    One in 10 Australians are “highly Islamophobic” and have a fear or dread of Muslims, a University of South Australia study has found.
    The findings indicated most Australians were not Islamophobic, with 70 per cent surveyed ­comfortable having a Muslim as a family member or close friend, ­although more felt social distance from Muslims than from other ­religious groups, Professor Hassan said. A further 20 per cent were ­undecided on the issue.
    Professor Hassan said Australians’ tolerance towards immigrants strongly influenced their Islamophobia score while higher proportions of older Australians, aged 65 to 74, people who had not completed Year 12, and those not in the labour force showed higher rates of negative views.

I’m not sure why they were surprised that political affiliations had a strong correlation with ­Islamophobia:

    Australians aligned with the Liberal and Nationals parties have significantly higher levels of ­Islamophobia than those aligned with the Labor Party while Greens voters tended to have the lowest Islamophobia score, the ­report said.

Back in 2014, Monash University and the Scanlon Foundation found that one in four Australians held a negative attitude towards Muslims.

I would doubt that the surveys are comparable in questions asked and methodology, so on this evidence I don’t think we can claim that attitudes have changed.

By the way, 40% of us think Hillary Clinton should be President, with 32% don’t know, followed by Donald Trump at 12%.

I heard an American remind us the other day that probably only about 15% of them want Trump. His support amounts to about 30% of rusted on Republican voters.

30 thoughts on “Poll stuff”

  1. I wrote this one last night and forgot about it. I’ve been watching a bit of the tennis, which doesn’t help productivity.

    Any way FWIW I think the post gets better as it goes.

  2. Don’t people know of Bernie Sanders? Could this be the knock-on effect of US mainstream media coverage? If the American polls are reliable, the Primary contests between Clinton and Sanders will be interesting. What are the odds that Marco Rubio will be the Republican nominee?

  3. I’m really surprised at that low score of only 10% of Australians surveyed in that Uni.SouthAust. survey being Highly Islamaphobic , with a fear or dread of Moslems.

    Around here, I’m definitely part of a small minority that would be unconcerned about having a Moslem family living next door. I do question the lumping of older people and LNP voters as Highly Islamaphobic. My own experience – quite anecdotal and without statistics – is that younger people, all of whom have completed Grade 12 and beyond, are far more Islamaphobic than the older generations – and that their Islamaphobia is based mainly on what is happening overseas whereas the older ones are concerned mainly about the effect Islam has on Australian society. The crowding of Highly Islamaphobic into LNP voters is risible in my opinion because I have found staunch Labor supporters even more Highly Islamophobic. Some silly-as-a-cut-snake LNP supporters fear that Islamaphobia is very bad for business and if we don’t stop it, we will all be begging door-to-door.

  4. wmbb:

    Don’t people know of Bernie Sanders? Could this be the knock-on effect of US mainstream media coverage?

    I read another article, lost it now, about why Sanders won’t win the primaries. Basically it is his lack of recognition in the larger states, but also the more centrist alignment of Democrats generally which will take over then.

  5. Graham, “people who had not completed Year 12, and those not in the labour force” could include younger people.

    My biggest query is the division into only two categories – extreme Islamaphobia and acceptance. I have now found the report. They did use a standard Likert scale with five categories.

    On a quick look I can’t get my head around it and don’t have time to look more closely right now.

  7. Looking at how Obama beat Clinton last time around it is not impossible for Sanders to beat Clinton. The yanks seem to like “non-politicians” like Obama and Carter.
    I f Sanders becomes the Democrat nominee he may also win here on the grounds of being more acceptable to most Americans than the current Republican front runners.
    I have seen claims that Sanders is good at negotiating so he could end up being an effective President who achieves quite a bit despite the potnential of congress to block.

  8. According to your site Douglas, Sanders needs to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, and then just maybe, and maybe not. Clinton is still well ahead nationally.

    In the AFR today, Thomas Friedman said if Sanders and Trump get up then Americans get to choose between a socialist (shock horror!) and a fascist.

  9. Fairfax is reporting that a Reachtel poll for Channel 7, has almost 81% of voters preferring Mr Turnbull, and the other 19% preferring Mr Shorten.

    A huge gulf. It would correspond to ALL of the “don’t knows” in the poll Brian linked to, plumping for Mr Turnbull.

    Will the Federal ALP dump a first term Opposition Leader? Should it?

    Senator Sanders calls himself a ‘democratic socialist’. What does that mean in the US context?

  10. Senator Sanders calls himself a ‘democratic socialist’. What does that mean in the US context?

    It mean he wants everyone to be so reliant on government, for everything, that they vote for more of the same.
    Pathetic view of humanity I know but the US has been going there since Reagan went.
    Damn shame, but there it is.

  11. As for ” islamaphobia “, my definition is ; A person or group of people so frightened of the repercussions of criticising islam, they remain silent.

    Most of the media are islamaphobic.

    Those openly criticising are not in fear.

  12. Jumpy your libertarian credentials are showing again – small government and self-reliance by citizens.

    Ambi, I saw a comment today that the left of our Liberal Party lines up with the centre of their Democratic party. So Turnbull and Obama should get along fine.

    I guess a ‘social democrat’ would be seen as a communist by the Republicans, but I’m only guessing.

  13. Brian

    Jumpy your libertarian credentials are showing again – small government and self-reliance by citizens.

    I’ve thought that way before I ever heard the word ” Libertarian “.
    If the tag fits me, in your eyes, so be it.

    Just as a polite inquiry, what aspects of Libertarian philosophy ( you most certainly know far more about it than I ) do you think are unjust ?

  15. Funny thing Jumpy is that the Scandinavian countries have been top economic and quality of life performers for as long as I can remember despite the yanks sneering at their high tax rates and extensive welfare system. A healthy, well educated society with a good social security safety net is a good start for a healthy, competitive economy.
    Not like the US where some people have to choose between medicine and food and where my son says some people commit jailable offenses because jails are requied to provide free medical attention!

  16. Seems that Michael Bloomberg, former Governor of New York, might run as an independent.

    Seems he’s waiting to see if the Republicans continue on their insane path of putting up Trump or Cruz, and secondly, if Hillary looks a bit wobbly and beatable.

  18. Not like the US where some people have to choose between medicine and food and where my son says some people commit jailable offenses because jails are requied to provide free medical attention!

    I don’t know enough about Obamacare to comment, only to say it wasn’t as Hopey Changey as promised according to quite a few things I’ve read.

  19. It wasn’t as hopey changey as hoped because of the truly ludicrous opposition it faced. Quite honestly there were Americans who believed that it was about the government restricting their freedom. The freedom that was being restricted was the freedom to pay enormous amounts for health care so that it was the major cause of bankruptcy in America, but anti-government sentiment is very strong in America, in a way that is probably hard for most Australians to understand.

    So Obama had to cobble something together that was sort of like a system of private insurance but a bit better. I think blaming Obama for this problem is way off beam.

  20. Val

    The freedom that was being restricted was the freedom to pay enormous amounts for health care so that it was the major cause of bankruptcy in America,

    Could you explain that more deeply Val, I have a little trouble with how that could be quantified ?

  21. I don’t know enough about Obamacare to comment, only to say it wasn’t as Hopey Changey as promised according to quite a few things I’ve read.

    Could you explain that more deeply Jumpy, I have a little trouble understanding what you actually mean by “Hopey Changey”?

  23. It’s a serious question. What is “Hopey Changey”?
    I Googled it and got umpteen hits for Sarah Palin circa 2010. Perhaps that’s why it bears no resemblance to any flavour of English I’m familiar with.
    What do you intend it to mean when you use the term?

  24. I don’t really get what your problem is Jumpy. It’s fairly well known that medical expenses are the leading cause of individual bankruptcy in America. Hopefully the Affordable Care Act (aka ‘Obamacare’) may go some way to alleviate this, but as I suggested above, it was a compromise scheme that may not be entirely successful in addressing this problem.

    Not sure how many links this blog will accept without posts going into moderation, so here is one to start with
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100840148

    I’ll send a few more in another post and see what happens

  26. Well three links will send a post to moderation apparently if anyone is interested. You’ll just have to wait Jumpy – or you could just try googling it yourself.

    Just out of curiosity, why do you feel impelled to treat everything I say as stupid? Surely it couldn’t be sexism, could it?

  27. *sigh*… I pointed out my ignorance of this issue, not yours Val.

    Thank you for the links ( but not the attitude )

    [ If you would like to, again, discuss my out and proud status as a sexist, Brian has set aside a thread for just that topic. But not here. ]

  28. Thomas Sowell has a good read about the US polls and politics.

    Those of us who like to believe that human beings are rational can sometimes have a hard time trying to explain what is going on in politics

  29. Ok Jumpy I realised after I’d posted that comment that you may not have intended it in the way I took it, so I apologise.

    OTOH this business of calling yourself an “out and proud … sexist” seems silly and trollish, so could you drop it? It simply sounds as if you are trying to make fun of women’s concerns about sexism.

  30. Val

    Ok Jumpy I realised after I’d posted that comment that you may not have intended it in the way I took it, so I apologise.

    No probs, I do write clumsily.
    And your comments never offend or hurt me in any way.

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