Politics & Government

Poll stuff 1/7

3 Comments

In the dead tree version of the Oz, the headline read Coalition high in PM’s home state. Aha! I thought, the latest Newspoll must be good for Labor, if that’s all they can find to say! Then I saw it at the head of the table – 50-50 in NSW.

In fact the two-party preferred (TPP) number favoured Labor 53-47, but they hid the number as much as possible and didn’t mention it in the text.

At The Guardian the headline was Coalition loses ground to Labor in five main states, poll analysis shows.

You can breach the paywall by copying Phillip Hudson Support for the coalition has risen to an 18-month high in Tony Abbott’s home state of NSW into Google. The sentence does finish … but the Coalition continues to struggle in Victoria and South Australia.

And struggle it does. Here are the figures, with Labor first:

    NSW – 50-50

    VIC – 57-43

    QLD – 52-48

    WA – 50-50

    SA – 52-48

This time the poll is actually a compilation of the three-month period April-June. I don’t know whether they did a new poll this fortnight.

Because the sample is in effect much larger, the margin of error is less. The fine print says plus or minus 1.3% overall and 3.7% for the smallest state. Tasmania was too small to sample and the ACT was included in NSW.

There’s nothing new in ‘preferred PM’ or satisfaction rates except for the state by state breakdown. Victorians are least satisfied with the Abbott, whereas it’s WA for Shorten.

Roy Morgan has the LNP up one point but still has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5.

Roy Morgan also does state polls. It has the Libs ahead 57-43 in NSW and Labor continues with a healthy lead of 56.5-43.5 in Victoria. In Queensland Labor is up by 3.5% to lead 51.5-48.5.

Essential Report has Labor up one to lead 53-47.

Conclusion: Abbott would be very brave to call an election now, and Bill Shorten is probably safe for the moment. We’ll see what happens when he fronts the inquiry into unions.

Essential has some other interesting polls, including the question How much trust do you have in the following media commentators and journalists?

Laurie Oakes (71%) is miles in front, followed by Sarah Ferguson, Tony Jones and Mark Riley (all 51%). Then we have Michelle Grattan (49%), Neil Mitchell (47%), Chris Uhlmann (46%), followed by Jon Faine (40%). Trailing the field are Andrew Bolt (38%) and Alan Jones (29%).

Bolt and Jones score particularly well on ‘not much/no trust at all’ with 50% and 58% respectively.

3 thoughts on “Poll stuff 1/7”

  1. In NSW Abbott is probably benefiting from Baird’s performance.
    The real problem for Abbott is that he is still behind while Shorten’s performance has not been at all good.

  2. Bill should buckle up ( maybe a parachute ) with the Union corruption RC and ALP conference in his not distant future.

    My moneys on the Wall Puncher v Drugys Wife election.
    Wall Puncher will undoubtedly look at his watch or wink in the campaign and Drugys Wife will do a deal with the greens to form another spend-a-thon.

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