Saturday Salon 13/9

September 13, 2014 Brian 18 Comments

An open thread where, at your leisure, you can discuss anything you like, well, within reason and the Comments Policy. Include here news and views, plus any notable personal experiences from the week and the weekend.

For climate topics please use the most recent Climate clippings.

The gentleman in the image is Voltaire, who for a time graced the court of Frederick II of Prussia, known as Frederick the Great. King Fred loved to talk about the universe and everything at the end of a day’s work. He also used the salons of Berlin to get feedback in the development of public policy.

Fred would only talk in French; he regarded German as barbaric. Here we’ll use English.

The thread will be a stoush-free zone. The Comments Policy says:

The aim [of this site] is to provide a venue for people to contribute and to engage in a civil and respectful manner.

Here are a few bits and pieces that came to my attention last week.

1. Scottish independence

Finally the vote for Scottish independence is to take place on Thursday 18 September.

Suddenly with a “no” vote possible, everyone is paying attention. Anatole Kaletsky in the New York Times says it would send a ripple through Europe, make David Cameron a lame duck leader if he doesn’t resign and destabilise what remains of the UK.

George Monbiot says a yes vote in Scotland would unleash the most dangerous thing of all – hope.

John Harris thinks the system is broken. What we are seeing is post-democratic politics.

what is happening north of the border is the most spectacular manifestation of a phenomenon taking root all over – indeed, if the splintering of politics and the rise of new forces on both left and right across Europe are anything to go by, a set of developments not defined by specific national circumstances, but profound social and economic ruptures.

Whether justifiably or not, millions of British people have passed through holding politicians in contempt and now treat them with cold indifference. Let’s face it: the only thing keeping all this alive is the electoral system.

Post-democracy is

a development seen “when boredom, frustration and disillusion have settled in after a democratic moment … [and] where political elites have learned to manage and manipulate popular demands”

2. Terror alert

Abbott announced, just after the anniversary of 9/11, that the country was going on high terror alert, this time without fridge magnets. We are meant to carry on as normal and not worry about his nasty budget. Sorry, I’m wandering!

Greg Barns wonders whether it’s just a case of the spooks, who are always jumpy, jumping as they do, and asks:

If no attack is imminent and Abbott says it is not, then why bother to make the announcement?

3. High court intervenes on asylum seeker detention

For the first time, the High Court clearly set out the constitutional limits on immigration detention:

It was previously unclear for what purposes the government could detain non-citizens. The court has now clearly stated that the government can lawfully detain someone in only three circumstances: to consider whether to let someone apply for a visa; to consider an application for a visa; or to remove someone.

Detention is only lawful if these purposes are being “pursued and carried into effect as soon as reasonably practicable”, the court held. The length of detention must be assessed by what is “necessary and incidental” to execute and fulfil those purposes. These limits on detention are constitutional. In other words, parliament cannot override them by introducing new legislation.

4. Obama has a plan

Obama is on the offensive at least rhetorically, promising to degrade and destroy ISIL. His foot is now firmly planted in the quagmire.

Australia will tag along, of course.

5. Submarines will be bought from Japan

It looks certain that the next batch of submarines for the Australian Navy will be made in Japan.

Whatever you think of this it looks like yet another broken election promise.

6. Oscar Pistorius convicted of ‘culpable homicide’

In other words, manslaughter.

I can understand him being acquitted of premeditated murder. To me his brain was minimally engaged at all. What I don’t understand is that you can fire four shots through a closed door at a presumed intruder without an intent to kill.

Life

Pause and re-group

September 9, 2014 Brian 4 Comments

On Saturday afternoon my wife’s brother-in-law passed away. He had been in poor health for some time and his passing was not unexpected. Nevertheless when these things happen it is not easy. My wife had been to visit that day, about an hour’s drive away.

The funeral will be early next week, when we also have some overseas visitors coming to stay for a few days.

I’m going to take a little time to pause and re-group, so I hope to be back to posting towards the end of next week. I’ll comment as required and do a Saturday salon post, but I’d rather let the rest of the world go by for a bit.

I’m planning to do a little work on some travelogue posts on our recent Red Centre holiday. As a foretaste you might like this photo of the full moon at Purnie Bore in the Simpson Desert seen through the desert grass:

We were very lucky and truly blessed.

See you soon!

Life

Saturday salon 6/9

September 6, 2014 Brian 8 Comments

For climate topics please use the most recent Climate clippings.

Fred would only talk in French; he regarded German as barbaric. Here we’ll use English.

The thread will be a stoush-free zone. The Comments Policy says:

The aim [of this site] is to provide a venue for people to contribute and to engage in a civil and respectful manner.

Here are a few bits and pieces that came to my attention last week.

1. Paul Kelly’s new tome

Richard Fidler talked to Paul Kelly about his new book Triumph and Demise. All of the main players talked to Kelly on the record, which they haven’t done for anyone else. In all other cases I know at least one or the other of them wouldn’t talk or wouldn’t talk on the record.

I’m hoping to do a full-length post. Kelly mentions at least one incident I didn’t know about. There was a conversation between Rudd and Gillard on the verandah of Kirribilli in January 2010. That was where Gillard told Rudd she thought he should forget about climate change for a time, so it supports the “She made me do it” thesis. Kelly will have none of that. He says Rudd ignored Gillard’s advice often enough and has to take responsibility.

At that meeting Kelly says Gillard formed the opinion that Rudd was in no shape mentally to lead the party to an election.

The book looks like a ‘must read’.

2. The Searchers

The Searchers is the name of a 1956 film which this review suggests is “considered by many to be a true American masterpiece of filmmaking, and the best, most influential, and perhaps most-admired film of director John Ford.”

Certainly it did not do well when it was made, but influenced film makers such as Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg, Jean-Luc Godard, Wim Wenders, and George Lucas. In a recent survey it was rated the seventh best film of all time. Now Glenn Frankel has written an amazing book called The Searchers: the Making of an American Legend. The book tells you everything you’d want to know about the incident it was based on, the Alan Le May novel, Frank Nugent’s script, about John Wayne, John Ford and the making of the film itself as though he was there on the set.

He also unravels the grisly truth about the story of how Cynthia Ann Parker was taken by Comanches in an 1836 raid and retrieved in a ‘battle’ (actually a massacre of old men, women and children) by Texas rangers in 1860. He tells the story of Cynthia’s son Quanah Parker. Most of all he tells us how the legend of ‘how the West was won’ was formed over a century or more, and the racism that underlies it.

I’ve read the book with pleasure, now I’d like to see the film.

3. Barrier Reef dredging plans changes

It looks as though plans to dump waste on the Great Barrier Reef will be changed so that the waste will be dumped on land. What the report doesn’t say is that the change of plans is based on new technology, making land dumping the cheaper option rather than an outbreak of good sense on the part of the minister, Greg Hunt.

4. What Country in the World Best Fits Your Personality?

For me the answer is Iceland.

What a surprise!

Climate Action, Climate Science

Climate clippings 105

September 4, 2014 Brian 1 Comment

1. Atlantic Ocean important for heat storage

Most of the energy from global warming goes into the ocean as this graphic from Skeptical Science illustrates:

The linked paper stresses the role of the Atlantic in heat uptake. The following graph shows the heat uptake for the four main oceans. The black line is the sea surface temperature, the red line shows the heat below 1500 metres.

All this is considered in relation to the socalled warming ‘hiatus’. The suggestion is that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the critical influence and it changes phase every 20 to 35 years. If so the ‘hiatus’ could last another decade or so.

Other scientists see the hiatus as multi-causal. It also depends which temperature series you are looking at. The HadCRUT temperatures always look flatter in recent years, as in this article. The Gistemp series from NASA has 1998 as about the third highest and shows a continuing upward trend, albeit slowed..

2. ‘Unprecedented’ ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica

Since 2009 the volume of ice loss has tripled in West Antarctica and more than doubled in Greenland, the highest rate of ice loss since satellite records began 20 years ago.

While it’s still early days, sea level rise this century could surprise on the upside.

3. El Niño watch

Carbon Brief also have the latest on the chances of an El Niño developing in 2014, which the Australian BOM now put at about 50%. Earlier there was talk of a super El Niño, which is still possible.

4. China gets into emissions trading

The Chinese national market will start in 2016.

The Chinese market, when fully functional, would dwarf the European emissions trading system, which is now the world’s biggest.

It would be the main carbon trading hub in Asia and the Pacific, where Kazakhstan and New Zealand already operate similar markets. South Korea will start a national market on Jan. 1, 2015, while Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are drawing up plans for markets of their own.

Looks like quite a trend. Time perhaps for Australia to join in!

5. World’s poor need grid power, not just solar panels

Small scale solar power is quite popular in Africa and supported by environmentalists. A few panels are able to run a few lights, a radio, charge the mobile phone but stop short of boiling a kettle. Critics see this as condemning the poor to a constrained future. Only 20% of Kenyans are connected to the grid.

Coal fired power is obviously not the answer. Dams take years to build, are typically over budget, inundate fertile lands or forest areas and interrupt natural stream flow.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo the mega project of the Inga 3 dam is due to start construction on the Congo River. If fully developed it will produce twice as much electricity as the world’s largest, the three Gorges in China. But will it be economically justified and what impacts will it have on the environment?

6. Emissions from energy generation jump after carbon price axed

Carbon emissions from the country’s main electricity grid have risen since the end of the carbon tax by the largest amount in nearly eight years.

Data from the National Electricity Market, which covers about 80 per cent of Australia’s population, shows that emissions from the sector rose by about 1 million tonnes, or 0.8 per cent, at an annualised rate last month compared with June.

That is the biggest two-month increase since the end of 2006, and came as a result of an increase in overall demand and a rise in the share of coal-fired power in the market, according to Pitt & Sherry’s monthly Cedex emissions index.

From what I can make of it, gas is increasingly going to export, there is some scaling back of hydro, presumably because of the weather. and large scale solar was killed off ages ago. The slack is being taken up by old coal, including brown coal.

Abbott’s strategy of saving the coal fired power industry seems to be working.

Building new more efficient coal would be his ultimate aim. This would involve investors and lenders having confidence in the future of coal. Surely they can’t be that stupid!

Reminder: Use this thread as an open thread on climate change.

Technology

A blighted vision for the NBN

September 3, 2014 Brian 3 Comments

Donald Rumsfeld spoke about “unknown unknowns”. The Communications Chambers cost-benefit analysis (CBA) report gets rid of such nonsense by ruling it out. As Stilgherrian at Crikey says:

the key problem is the overall assumption that we’ll see a gentle, incremental growth in internet demand — whatever its rate for individual application — based on the kinds of things we’re doing on the internet today.

During a digital revolution, they seem to have missed the revolution part.

So the Multi-Technology Mix (MTM) model for the NBN will be fine, as long as you don’t want to use the internet much. Or as David Havyatt at the AFR says:

Choosing between the MTM and FTTP isn’t just about the outcome of the CBA. It is about choosing whether we want the nation to be technology leaders or technology laggards. It is about choosing whether we want to make do with inefficient government service delivery or drive it hard for efficiency and effectiveness.

The MTM simply rules out applications that could emerge in health and education which depend on a ubiquitous high-speed service, so public benefit is put at 5% of usage in the review. In truth it’s unknown with the fibre to the premises (FTTP) option, which was why a CBA always had limited value.

Stilgherrian says the model completely misses the Internet of Things, that is, the myriad devices such as smart air conditioners and light bulbs, toys and medical sensors. It assumes that such usage will fit into the cracks.

So 15 Mbps is seen as good enough for the vast bulk of users. There is no value assigned to the higher speeds a 100 Mbps would provide.

Hence the review strips away the known unknowns, dealing only with known knowns and very conservatively at that. Gentle, incremental growth in existing internet demand is assumed. It’s a case of dumbing down to the lowest common denominator.

The NBN strategic review found the FTTP cost only $8.6 billion more than MTM, a steal at the price. Yet the CBA review has inexplicably added $4 billion to the cost of FttP. Havyatt says this is problematic if not simply arbitrary and wrong.

In his blog post Havyatt points out that 70% of people connected to the NBN are opting and paying for a 100/40 Mpbs service. They are looking for speed if not volume. That’s what they want. Turnbull’s mob are taking the paternalistic view that it is not what they need.

I’m not sure of the funding arrangements for the NBN. I suspect that it is being funded on budget as an infrastructure program. Labor’s FTTP system was being funded off-budget effectively costing taxpayers nothing, against future privatisation.

All in all as in so many areas the Abbott government is dragging us back decades and compromising our future as a sophisticated economy. Think, for example, the renewable power industry and their passion for coal. Labor’s positive legacy is being destroyed with vigour and enthusiasm.

Sundries

Newman Unable to stop 2794 new Qld Solar in Aug

September 2, 2014 John Davidson

Newman’s anti solar hysteria and the economic punishing of those who continue to install solar is having little effect on the growth of both rooftop and commercial solar. During August, another 2,794 systems of 5kW or less were added to bring another 11.5MW of capacity into the system. This despite the fact that participating households are being paid little for their power exports.

Continue reading Newman Unable to stop 2794 new Qld Solar in Aug →

Sundries

Chair of RET Review Not Looking Good

September 2, 2014 John Davidson 3 Comments

Climate Spectator had this post on Dick Warburton, the Chair of the RET review committee and his performance on a Fran Kelly interview after his review had been released. It gives a picture of a man who doesn’t understand his own report or anything much else apart from the need to recommend the destruction of the RET and all the jobs it has created. Continue reading Chair of RET Review Not Looking Good →

Politics & Government

Australia’s involvement in Iraq conflict: how should we decide?

September 2, 2014 Brian 11 Comments

Contrasting views were put yesterday on the issue as to whether parliament should decide on our involvement in the Iraq conflict. Tony Abbott put the status quo thus:

The National Security Committee of the Cabinet considers the matter, the full Cabinet considers he matter, a decision is taken, the Opposition leader is consulted.

That’s the standard procedure. It’s always been thus; as far as I’m concerned it always will be thus.

I understand that Abbott made a statement to parliament in the afternoon advising members of developments and the action taken and contemplated. Abbott ruled out giving Parliament a vote on the current airlift to Iraq and any subsequent involvement.

In this he was backed by Labor. Stephen Conroy:

Labor fully supports the role of Parliament as a place of debate, but that should not be confused with requiring parliamentary approval. The role of the Parliament in approving military action is fraught with danger. The Government must retain maximum flexibility to respond to threats to Australia’s national security quickly and efficiently.

The Liberal Democrats think there should be a two-thirds vote in both houses of Parliament to commit forces overseas in foreign conflicts.

The Greens are leading the charge for the parliament to have a vote. Christine Milne:

The Australian Parliament now needs to be consulted and approval needs to be sought from the representatives of the people.

And:

Greens leader Christine Milne says there’s been no United Nations resolution for intervening in northern Iraq, nor, she says, has anyone seen an Iraqi government request.

Andrew Wilkie is very much of the same view. He questions whether we are becoming gun-runners for the Kurds at the direction of the United States.

Wilkie says it’s time Australia followed the lead of a long list of “sophisticated, developed democracies”:

Countries as diverse as Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the United States, and by convention, now even the United Kingdom – all of these countries require parliamentary involvement in decision-making about matters of war and peace.

Flexibilty and speed of decision making can save lives. However, there is concern about mission creep. Also Laura Tingle tells us that modern prime ministers have assumed the right to make a decision irrespective of cabinet’s views. Laura Tingle says:

The trend towards all powerful prime ministers – or to that perception – has been a persistent one in the past 30 years.

There were some ding dong battles in the Howard cabinet: on the early round of industrial relations reforms in 1996, for example, on the GST; on the car industry.

But as the government aged, and the absolute authority of the prime minister grew, the idea of cabinet government started to recede.

It wasn’t that cabinet didn’t meet and debate, it was just that ministers would increasingly be inclined to just shrug their shoulders and gesticulate at the PM’s office down the corridor to explain what was driving the direction of a particular policy.

The same was apparently true under Rudd and Gillard. But under Hawke in the mid-1980s things were different:

A reminder of what has been lost comes leaping out at us from Gareth Evans’s Inside the Hawke Keating Government: A Cabinet Diary, released this week.

It says much that a diary written 30 years ago can still sparkle and shimmy with a vibrancy that puts most recent political tomes to shame.

The striking thing about the book she says is “the sense of both collective responsibility and authority felt by the colourful cabinet ministers who brawl and wrestle their way through complex issues in the pages of Evans’s diary, covering the period 1984-86.”

How the Abbott cabinet works is not known to me. We have heard of Peta Credlin as head of PMO tearing strips off ministers.

Mark Latham argues for a Bastardry Factor as essential in a leader. Apparently Bill Shorten doesn’t have it. Thank God for that!

On the present issue I have the sense that Abbott has been genuinely consultative, and on balance I’d leave the protocols as they are. That’s unless there are to be boots on the ground. Then the Liberal Democrats’ notion of a two-thirds majority in both houses looks good to me.

Politics & Government, Social Science and Society

Menzies was not afraid of debt

September 1, 2014 Brian 6 Comments

Richard Denniss at The Conversation takes a look at Menzies’ approach to debt financing.

Robert Menzies left Australia in far worse financial shape than he found it, at least according to current treasurer Joe Hockey’s favourite debt and deficit benchmark. Having inherited budget surpluses from the Chifley Labor government, the Menzies Coalition government ran small budget surpluses from 1949-50 to 1957-58.

But then Menzies’ “irresponsible profligacy” began, running budget deficits for the last nine years of his reign.

Menzies was interested in nation building rather than obsessing about budget deficits.

So, what was Menzies up to? He clearly wasn’t obsessed with the budget deficits or worried about numbers of public servants that so concern Hockey. The economy grew quite steadily, often growing at more than 6% in real terms. Unemployment was mostly around 2% or less, and only 1.6% when he retired. Over his time in power, you couldn’t even argue that Menzies was trying to balance the budget over the business cycle.

Menzies was interested in nation-building. He not only wanted rapid population growth, but he wanted infrastructure growth and growth in the health and education services that make a society both cohesive and productive.

Like any successful corporate leader, he was willing to use long-run debt financing to fund long-run investments. Menzies knew that a lot of his budget spending was for capital projects that would deliver benefits for decades, so why should he have funded them entirely out of one year’s revenue?

Hockey, on the other hand, wants to fund a big increase in infrastructure spending with no increase in tax and no increase in debt. He wants to fund more capital spending by cutting spending on essential services and income support for poor people.

The simplistic notion that a deficit is evidence that a government is “living beyond its means” is complete economic nonsense. Leaving aside that historic and international evidence provides no support for the claim that budget deficits cause long-run economic problems, the argument is contradicted by the corporate decision making that politicians pretend to emulate.

Historically substantial levels of public debt have been normal:

Commonwealth net debt stood at 12.5% of GDP in June. The following graph shows net debt projected out to 2013-24:

Government ministers are fond of household and corporate analogies.

It is perfectly normal for a family to borrow money to buy a house, up to 27 to 30% of annual income. Corporates that do not have debt of 30 to 60% of net worth are said to have ‘lazy’ balance sheets. Unless they take on respectable levels of debt, growth prospects are usually minimal.

Parents of a school wanting to build a swimming pool or other optional facility typically need to borrow money otherwise they will never get the use of the facility while their kids are at school.

Where would Brisbane be without the Story Bridge? According to Wikipedia the successful tender was ₤1,150,000. From memory the debt was finally paid off in 1997, when the payments were actually negligible.

Hockey, Abbott, Cormann and company take us for fools, insult our intelligence and generally carry on in a reprehensible manner! They are not acting in the national interest.

Climate Plus

Monthly Archives: September 2014